Perceived traffic risk for cyclists: The impact of near miss and collision experiences

• Perceived traffic risk is not monolithic: certain dangers are more worrisome.
• Worries about traffic negatively influence non-regular cyclists’ decision to ride.
• Regular cyclists bicycle despite frequently worrying about certain traffic dangers.
• Both collisions and near misses influence cyclists’ perceptions of traffic risk.
• Near miss data may be critical to understanding traffic risk for cyclists.

Though the percentage of people bicycling for transportation rose during the last decade, with an average increase in bicycle commuting of 47% (Flusche, 2012), still only 1% of all U.S. trips are made by bike (Flusche, 2010). Research suggests that people’s concern regarding the risk of bicycling near traffic—namely the risk of being hit by a car—remain a significant barrier to widespread cycling. However, research has not disaggregated traffic risk to expose its many aspects and how they may affect bicyclists with differing skill levels, experiences, and behaviors. This study begins to address this gap in our understanding. Elaborating on results from an internet survey, this study examined various aspects of traffic risk among 406 potential and current bicyclists in the San Francisco Bay Area. The data indicate that perceived traffic risk negatively influences the decision to bicycle for potential and occasional bicyclists, although the influence decreases with cycling frequency. Additionally, cycling frequency seems to heighten awareness of traffic risk, particularly for cyclists who have experienced “near misses” or collisions. In particular, near misses were found to be (a) much more common than collisions and (b) more strongly associated than collisions with perceived traffic risk. The findings suggest that efforts targeting road user behaviors and roadway designs associated with these near misses could mitigate perceived and actual traffic risk for bicyclists, and thereby eventually help achieve higher cycling ridership.