Assessing financial instability: The case of Brazil

In this paper we use the arbitrage pricing theory to infer the probability of financial institution failure for banks in Brazil. We build an index of financial stability for Brazilian banks. Empirical results seem to provide evidence that after the Russian crisis in 1998, systemic risk has increased in the country but this risk has decreased over time through 2002. Furthermore, for individual major banks the probability of failure has decreased monotonically after the Russian crisis with the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime, an inflation-targeting framework and the introduction of the new payment system.