Market penetration among competitive innovation products: The case of the Smartphone Operating System

Competition models have seldom considered the future development of products. However, to make decisions about products, it is key to understand their future demand and competition with other products. In the present study, we considered four Smartphone Operating Systems (OSs) (Android, iOS, Symbian, and Blackberry), and proposed an integrated model that combines scenario analysis and the Delphi to predict possible scenarios for the future development of the four OSs. Then we used the Lotka–Volterra competitive model and an innovation diffusion model to forecast the adoption volume of each OS over the next 5 years. We suggest strategies for decision makers.