The causality examination between demand uncertainty and hotel failure: A case study of international tourist hotels in Taiwan

The hotel business is highly sensitive to economic cycles, as the industry faces high frequency and high fluctuation of uncertainty over the demand for lodging services. Without a thorough consideration on the issue, hotels may undergo a business crisis. This research therefore investigates the influence of demand uncertainty on hotel failure by using the operation data of international tourist hotels in Taiwan during 1995–2008. The analysis applies two stages of estimation. The first stage employs a first-order autoregressive model, AR(1), to model lodging demand uncertainty. The second stage estimates the likelihood of hotels’ failure by using a logit model. The results are supportive to determine that the demand uncertainty causes hotel failures.