Risk assessment of precipitation and the tourism climate index

• A mathematical approach is proposed for risk assessment of the TCI.
• The TCI coupled with the IDM to calculate probability of precipitation.
• Spatial analysis of the TCI risk provided end result that is easy to understand.

This study proposes a mathematical approach to a risk analysis of potential changes in the tourism climate nexus. The Information Diffusion Model (IDM) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) were applied to the spatial risk analysis of excessive rainfall based on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for North Cyprus. The probability of excessive rainfall was calculated using the IDM. The data were then inserted into the TCI formula to estimate the risk analysis of tourism climate for each station on the island. The spatial pattern of climate-related risks to tourism prepared using geo-statistical techniques with GIS software, revealed that the northern borders of the island are exposed to a high levels of precipitation, with resulting adverse effects on tourism. Risk assessments of the tourism climate, spatial–temporal analyses using the TCI, and climate insurance are suggested as adaptive strategies to address seasonality issues.