Forecasting of Hong Kong airport's passenger throughput

• The SARIMA and ARIMAX models were employed for forecasting air passenger throughput of Hong Kong until 2015.
• Future air passenger traffic of Hong Kong is projected to grow under different scenarios (an average of 0.5–0.8% per month).
• Both forecasting models are highly accurate with smaller forecasting errors.
• Future air passenger numbers travelling to Hong Kong from seven markets are likely to increase.
• Negative growth in air passenger numbers is predicted for Africa, Mainland China, and Taiwan.

Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) is one of the main gateways to Mainland China and the major aviation hub in Asia. An accurate airport traffic demand forecast allows for short and long-term planning and decision making regarding airport facilities and flight networks. This paper employs the Box–Jenkins Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model and the ARIMAX model to forecast airport passenger traffic for Hong Kong, and projecting its future growth trend to 2015. Both models predict a steady growth in future airport passenger traffic at Hong Kong. In addition, scenario analysis suggests that Hong Kong airport's future passenger traffic will continue to grow in different magnitudes.