How to evaluate the effects of climate change on tourism

• Statistical models evaluating the effect of climate change on tourism are investigated.
• Climate change would lead to a gradual shift of tourists' towards higher latitudes.
• Global warming would increase domestic trips, especially in colder countries.
• Global warming is good news for seasonality.
• Different perspectives show a non-linear relationship between tourism and temperature.

The aim of this study is to assess the most relevant quantitative approaches to evaluating the effects of climate change on tourism. In recent years, numerous empirical studies have conducted evaluations of this kind, based on different methodologies and perspectives. This review shows that the effects of climate change can first be assessed through changes in physical conditions essential to tourism; secondly, by using climate indexes to measure the attractiveness of tourist destinations; and, thirdly, by modelling tourism demand with the inclusion of climate determinants. The review suggests that, although some methodologies are in the early stages of development, different approaches result in a similar map of those areas mainly affected by the problem.