Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba

• Climate is a significant push and pull factor affecting tourism demand.
• Tourism demand and climate are bounded by intertemporal climate constraints.
• Seasonality matters for short-term tourism demand movements.
• A continued stream of general information on current and average climate conditions during the year is needed.

This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using the Census X-12 decomposition method, after which the analysis included panel data unit root testing, panel data regression, and Euclidean distance calculation. The results show that both pull and push seasonal factors of climate were relevant in determining the seasonal variations in tourism demand from both countries. The study derives two theoretical propositions: (1) climate is a significant push and pull factor affecting tourism demand; and (2) tourism demand and climate are bounded by intertemporal climate constraints.