Residents' choice probability and tourism development

This paper aims to identify the factors that influence resident's choice of a particular type of tourism (i.e. “sea and sun”, cruise, sport and cultural tourism). The case study presented is the city of Olbia (Sardinia, Italy). With its airport and port, Olbia is the gateway for the “Costa Smeralda” (Emerald Coast), one of the most well-established tourism destinations worldwide. The main objective is achieved by constructing a representative random stratified sample, for a total of 1208 interviews. Residents' choice about the level of investment they would prefer for each type of tourism activity is assessed by different probabilistic specifications, according to the statistical properties of the data. On the whole, evidence shows that even in a mature destination like Olbia, residents do not dislike tourism activity in all its forms. Policy and management implications are drawn on these empirical findings and suggestions for further research are given.

► Residents' choice on different types of tourism development.
► Probabilistic modeling.
► Representative random stratified sample survey data.
► A well-established international destination as a case study.
► Management implications.