Ancient Greek futures: Diminishing uncertainties by means of divination

• Divination was used for forecasting purposes in ancient Greece.
• Ancient Greeks hoped to gain advice from the supernatural by means of divination.
• Ancient Greek futures were kaleidoscopic.
• Ancient Greek futures were not predetermined, but open-but-not-empty.
• The concept ‘risk’ is not useful for the study of ancient Greece.

This paper analyzes forecasting in the ancient Greek world. Forecasting was practiced by the use of a particular method: that of divination. Divination was the interpretation of signs perceived to have been sent by the supernatural. This practice can be seen as an ancient alternative to risk assessment/analysis and to scenario studies. The study of divination shows that ancient Greeks believed there were multiple futures – and not one predetermined future – from which man attempted to select the best, aided by the flexible tool that divination appears to be. The Greek future is, perhaps, more like our own than it may previously have been assumed. Ideas about how this future should be come to terms with, however, differ significantly. The absence of concepts of risk and probability are one difference, the use of the supernatural to assess uncertainties is another.