Developing integrated explorative and normative scenarios: The case of future land use in a climate-neutral Sweden

• We need to consider fulfilling climate targets in a context of external developments.
• Four scenarios were developed with the target “no greenhouse gas emissions in 2060”.
• Participatory backcasting can be a tool for long-term planning.
• A climate-neutral Sweden is possible, but contains major challenges.
• Policy makers should discuss land use in longer time frames than currently applied.

Transition from the current oil-based world economy to an economy based on renewable resources can become a strong driving force for land use change. This paper describes the development of integrated explorative and normative scenarios for the analysis of future land use in a climate-neutral Sweden. The aim is to show how backcasting scenarios fulfilling far-reaching greenhouse gas reduction targets can be related to assumptions on possible external developments, in order to contribute to the discussion on future sustainable land use. A target-fulfilling scenario element was combined with an external scenario element, i.e. developments that cannot be influenced by the targeted actors. The scenarios were developed and analysed in collaboration with local actors. Four scenarios were used to describe how land in Sweden could be used when Sweden has achieved zero emissions of greenhouse gases in 2060. The explorative dimension stretched from a situation where there is no international climate agreement to one where there is an international agreement on reducing greenhouse gases. The backcasting dimension illustrated different strategies to achieve the target and stretches from a very influential municipal level to one where the national/EU level is most influential.