Spacecraft: A steady progress scenario for the EU

• “Spacecraft” is one of the scenarios of the European PACT project to assess pathways for carbon transition in Europe.
• It has been assessed first qualitatively, then quantified with VLEEM-TILT and POLES models.
• Policy context in “Spacecraft”: what consequences on demography and economy, on governance of global challenges?
• Social preferences, behaviours and technologies: resulting economic perspectives, focus on urbanization and mobility issues.
• Quantitative projections: demography, economy, housing, mobility, energy, CO2 emissions. Policy findings.

“Spacecraft” can be qualified as a steady progress scenario for Europe. It is one of the various scenarios of the European R&D projects PACT and PASHMINA which attempt to describe possible pathways for carbon transition in Europe and the related paradigm shifts in technology and economy. To some extent, this scenario depicts in details “green economy” conditions, perspectives and consequences.This article highlights first the policy context of such a scenario both at European and World levels, and the resulting consequences on demography and economy in the one side, on governance of climate and oil resources issues on the other hand.It then comes into details of what would be the content of such a scenario as regard social preferences, behaviours, technologies and resulting economic perspectives in the EU. A particular focus is given on urbanization and mobility issues.Quantitative projections deducted from the storyline of the scenario, thanks to VLEEM-TILT and POLES models are then presented: demography, economy, housing, mobility, energy, CO2 emissions.Conclusions and policy findings of this scenario are finally presented.