Perceiving megatrends as empty signifiers: A discourse-theoretical interpretation of trend management

Ansoff's concept of weak signals, today more often referred to as trends, has permeated both academia and management in the past 30 years. While the relevance of dealing with trends is constantly underlined, the effects of labeling phenomena as trends and megatrends in an organizational context have not been widely discussed. In particular, the dangers of dealing with megatrend semantics are that the strategic implications of these phenomena are unclear and that an organization is likely to increase its blind spots, thereby actually undermining its foresight capability.This paper applies a discourse-theoretical perspective developed by Ernesto Laclau and Chantalle Mouffe to trend management in organizations. It argues that megatrends can be perceived as empty signifiers, as they provide an overdetermined, abstract form of meaning that addresses discourses but cannot convey concrete meaning for management. It is proposed that instead of concentrating on megatrends (empty signifiers), trend management should reconstruct those elements of a discourse in which shifts of meaning can be observed, detecting and understanding the nodal points of a discourse.

► The usage of the term ‘megatrend’ is likely to have a dysfunctional outcome.
► A discourse theoretical perspective suggests that megatrends can be perceived as empty signifiers.
► Trend management should aim at detecting and understanding the nodal points of a discourse.