Goal-based socio-technical scenarios: Greening the mobility practices in the Stockholm City District of Bromma, Sweden

This paper presents a new five-part method for developing goal-based socio-technical scenarios. In the first part, Scenario ‘Seeds’ are identified or created. The Scenario Content part focuses on the question of what could be changed and by whom, a fundamental element being iterative identification of objects and actors of change. Scenario Outcome focuses on the question of how to assess the potential contribution of these changes, estimated through modelling the scenario in terms of energy usage systems. Scenario Process explores the question of how to develop and represent a scenario in terms of a process of governance. Scenario Content, Outcome and Process are then combined into a Final Scenario which is further assessed and evaluated using qualitative methods. The development of Scenario Content is tested and exemplified in this paper through a scenario study of green mobility in the district of Bromma in Stockholm, Sweden. Preliminary findings indicate that by supporting explicit inclusion of actors and ‘the social’ aspect, the what-who iteration in Scenario Content also helps identify opportunities and obstacles of a social character, thus contributing to creation of socio-technically more consistent and comprehensive scenarios.

► A five-part method for developing goal-based socio-technical scenarios is presented.
► The method uses formative events as starting point for exploring fundamental changes.
► The basis for this is an iterative identification of Objects and Agents of Change.
► Internal and external scenario elements are identified and elaborated.
► The methodology is applied in a scenario study of green mobility.