The contribution of scenario analysis to the front-end of new product development

The front-end of new product development involves the identification and analysis of product or service opportunities, idea generation, and the selection of new product and service concepts. It is often referred to as non-routine, dynamic, and highly uncertain. Authors have made attempts to improve the manageability of this phase by proposing several methods and techniques. This paper explores the possible contribution of scenario analysis to increase the quality and effectiveness of the front-end of new product development process by linking a set of functions of scenario analysis as is recognized in the literature as possible solutions to various front-end problems. Two case studies are used to explore if and how the scenario analysis functions contribute to the front-end of new product development process in an empirical setting.

► We show how scenario analysis reduces the fuzziness of front-end NPD.
► We link the functions of scenario analysis to the innovation management problems.
► Innovation management problems relate to the management of ideas and attention.
► Two case studies explore if and how scenario analysis reduces these problems.