Futures and culture

Are there, in scenario analyses, recurring narratives about the future that tend to converge on a small number of archetypes? If so, what are they, and what are their characteristics? This question was examined in a sample of 20 scenario sets constructed between 1990 and 2008, containing 64 stories, and representing five countries, and six different themes. Eight repeating archetypes were identified, and named as progress, catastrophe, reversion and transformation. Each of these main types exists in two variants: the causal variant is driven by forces of “natural law”, while the intent variant is driven by social intentions. The archetypes are present in scenarios produced by different methods. It therefore seems unlikely that they are an artefact of the method used. The question is considered as to whether the identified archetypes are “hard-wired” into our narrative imagination, or whether they are created by our culture. Evidence is analysed suggesting that there is a strong influence of culture. Most strikingly, analyzing the societies envisaged in the narratives reveals some anomalous rule breaking which strongly suggests that cultural influence is at work. Only further cross-cultural work will reveal whether there are possible narratives that are hidden from us.

► Eight archetypal narratives have been identified in scenarios.
► Archetypes do not depend on the scenario method used.
► Archetypes seem likely to be a product of culture.