Combining backcasting and adaptive management for climate adaptation in coastal regions: A methodology and a South African case study

Developing adaptation strategies for deltaic and coastal regions is a major challenge, due to future uncertainties of climate change and complexity of the social–ecological systems to be managed. This paper investigates how desirable futures or normative scenarios approaches, in particular backcasting, can be used to develop more robust climate strategies in coastal regions. The paper develops a methodology in which participatory backcasting and adaptive management are combined, and its applicability is demonstrated for the Breede–Overberg coastal region in South Africa where a catchment management strategy has been developed. It is concluded that the methodology offers an adequate framework for developing and implementing long-term climate adaptation strategies and policies, including a transition management scheme for intermediate assessments.

► Climate adaptation in coastal regions requires sophisticated futures and foresight methodologies.
► We have developed a methodology that combines backcasting and AM for climate adaptation under uncertainty.
► It is applied to a South African case of the development of a catchment management strategy for the coastal Breede–Overberg region.