Megapatterns of global settlement: Typology and drivers in a warming world

Changes in settlement structures of the world can be described as megapatterns that represent dynamic spatial trends. This paper defines and describes three types of such megapatterns that will be of major influence in shaping global settlement and activity structures in the future, given a warming climate: (1) megapatterns driven by global warming; (2) megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources, and (3) megapatterns driven by important spatial positions. The megapatterns are ordered into a typology and their individual and collective impacts are described.The major findings of this paper are: because of global warming many of the central areas of the globe will experience heat, water and pollution problems that will induce people and activities to be moved to cooler, wetter areas. As high, cool terrains, as well as the virgin Sub-Polar Regions—mostly located in Siberia, Northern Canada, Northern Scandinavia, Greenland, Alaska, Southern Argentina, and Southern Chile—start to get warmer, it will become possible to relocate water-craving industries, like agriculture and resource extraction. This will not necessarily lead to a large population shift, since relatively few workers are needed for most such operations.

► Ten dynamic megapatterns will shape future global settlement and activity structures.
► The megapatterns are driven by: global warming; improved technology and resources; by an important spatial position on the globe.
► The megapatterns in a warming world point to high, cool terrains such as the virgin Sub-Polar Regions.
► It will become possible to move water-craving industries like agriculture and resource extraction into cold but warming regions.
► Technology can reduce the need for a large global population shift.