Evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches: An analogy with medicine

This paper discusses the evaluation of new infrastructure planning approaches. These new planning approaches have been put forward in response to the challenges of deep uncertainty about the future. These approaches emphasize the need for flexibility of the system in order to enable the plan to adapt to changing conditions. However, these adaptive approaches up till now have seen little real word applications. One important reason for this lack of application is that the efficacy of these approaches has not been established yet. In turn, this is largely due to the problem that there is no agreed upon method for proving the efficacy of a new planning approach. In this paper, we will draw an analogy to medical research and development in order to outline a methodology for establishing the efficacy of new planning approaches. We discuss how the well-established methodology for evaluation new medical treatments can be adapted to evaluating new planning approaches. We illustrate the resulting evaluation methodology by outlining an evaluation strategy for a specific new planning approach. It is concluded that the well-established methodology from medicine can successfully be used to inform the evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches.

► We explore how new infrastructure planning approaches can be evaluated.
► We draw an analogy with the well established practice of evaluating medical treatments.
► We show how theory, animal models, in vitro experiments, natural experiments, and clinical trials can be adapted for use in evaluating planning approaches.