کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1015866 | 939907 | 2011 | 15 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Building scenarios with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: An exploratory study of solar energy
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
In scenario planning, causal mapping has long been used as a means to elicit the worldviews of multiple experts, facilitate discussion, and challenge and improve mental models. Large and complex causal maps, however, are difficult to analyze. This paper proposes a novel method for scenario building, based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, that combines intuitive, cognitive mapping techniques with formal, quantitative analysis. The proposed method helps scenario planners to integrate the qualitative and partial knowledge of multiple individuals and overcome information processing limitations. The feasibility of the proposed approach is investigated with two scenario studies on solar photovoltaic panels.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Futures - Volume 43, Issue 1, February 2011, Pages 52–66
Journal: Futures - Volume 43, Issue 1, February 2011, Pages 52–66
نویسندگان
Antonie Jetter, Willi Schweinfort,