Historical analysis as a basis for population foresight

A framework for conducting historical analysis of population reactions to stimuli is presented. This analysis provides a structured, rigorous and auditable approach to forecasting population behaviours. The multi-methodology approach takes complex qualitative data and structures it in such a way that patterns of population behaviours can be identified and semi quantitative data can be extracted for further analysis. The ability of the framework to allow simple contextual analysis is discussed, as is its ability to provide the foundations for understanding stimuli. Together, the information provided by the framework can be used as the basis for generation of plausible future scenarios within appropriate contexts for both the near and far futures. Additionally, both current and future events and stimuli can be added to the model as they occur, to either evolve or validate trends in population behaviours.