کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1016354 939952 2006 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The future revisited: Looking back at The next 25 years by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR)
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
The future revisited: Looking back at The next 25 years by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR)
چکیده انگلیسی

Looking back at futures studies in the past (past futures) is perhaps the second nature of futures researchers. In this article we look back at a study that was conducted by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy in 1977. We considered it interesting to assess its value 25 years later since many changes have taken place in technology, society, economy, and in the science of futures research as well. From our analysis we have drawn the following conclusions: (1) instead of giving every topic the same time horizon more diverse time horizons should be included because of the different dynamics, (2) more attention for people and opinions outside the mainstream discourse, (3) more attention for thinking in multiple futures instead of predicting just one future outcome, (4) do not only look at the (possible) future of a specific topic, but assess if this topic in its whole will be relevant in the future important (meta-forecast), and (5) more attention for integrating topics for futures studies, but not fulfilling the impossible ambition to link everything to everything.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Futures - Volume 38, Issue 3, April 2006, Pages 235–246
نویسندگان
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