Integrated modeling for exploring sustainable agriculture futures

Sustainable agriculture meets human needs for food, enhances the quality of life of people, protects the integrity of natural systems, and is economically profitable. Making a transition to agricultural sustainability involves difficult choices and an understanding of the complex trade-offs associated with different agricultural pathways. In this paper, we describe the development and application of a decision support tool—AgFutures—for exploring alternative futures for agricultural sustainability in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. The main core of the model is simulation of future land-use changes in different scenarios and assessment of social, economic and environmental consequences under these scenarios. Evolution of land-use is simulated as a result of not only biophysical conditions but also as a result of human behaviour and choices, specifically related to lifestyle, agricultural management practices and institutional policies. Eight different scenarios are generated and compared for their impacts on sustainability in the Lower Mainland.AgFutures helps users to identify desirable future scenarios and the set of choices and trade-offs that they are willing to accept. Identification of these allows decision-makers to formulate policies that would lead to achieving the goals of sustainable agriculture. The novel aspect of this model lies in its design and methods, which represent a balance between the need for rigour and the need for a tool that can be used by a wide array of users.