کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1016453 939973 2006 14 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight
چکیده انگلیسی

We discuss the changes occurring in the field of organizational foresight. The analysis results from viewing foresight from two different perspectives: as centered on the future or on the present; as macroscopic analysis or microscopic practice. The combination of these factors results in four different modes of organizational foresight: strategic planning, visioning, scenario thinking and planned emergence. These different perspectives are examined. We contribute to the literature by presenting foresight as a complex process, amenable to different understandings. Foresight is often portrayed as a technical and analytic process. We discuss it as a human process permeated by a dialectic between the need to know and the fear of knowing.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Futures - Volume 38, Issue 8, October 2006, Pages 942–955
نویسندگان
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