Endowing cognitive mapping with computational properties for strategic analysis

A number of cognitive, causal mapping and simulation techniques exist for dealing with the growing importance of environmental uncertainty. After briefly commenting on some of the more salient extant approaches, this paper offers a new one for consideration by the scenario planning community. Comprehensive Situation Mapping (CSM) is a powerful analytical tool combined with a process for framing and debating strategic situations. The CSM approach combines the problem framing features of causal mapping with a dialectical inquiry process patterned after Churchman's. Like the better approaches to planning through cognitive mapping, it facilitates the “backward analysis” of the underlying strategic assumptions. Its novelty is that it also allows the “forward analysis” of a situation by computing the potential change scenarios. Initially developed for manual application, the principles of CSM were originally tested in appropriate case studies. The contribution of the present paper is to present its theory and point out that its future potential is even greater: in concluding we indicate that, by using recent distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) technology, a fully computerized and interactive prototype is now being set up for commercial applications.