Tail risk and the return-volatility relation

This article brings new insights on the time-varying leverage and feedback effects in equity markets. The lead-lag return-volatility relation is examined by resorting to time-varying asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation models that allows for asymmetry (ADCC) and spillovers (ADCCX) with tail risk lagged variables (SKEW, VVIX) from 1990 to 2014. Empirical findings reveal that the dynamic leverage effect is the most influential in driving equity markets. The volatility of volatility (VVIX) exhibits a significant influence on the dynamic feedback effect only.