The ecological fallacy: How to spot one and tips on how to use one to your advantage

• The ecological fallacy is an error of deduction where conclusions about individuals are based on observation of group data.
• Example: people of this type on average have certain features, therefore This person has those exact features.
• An easy mistake and occasionally convenient.
• Recognise the risk of the Ecological fallacy.
• There are statistical tools available to accommodate Multi-level data.

The ecological fallacy is a common and little understood error in the interpretation of statistical data wherein inferences about individuals are based on the aggregate of the group from which they belong. This opinion piece overviews the importance of avoiding the error and illustrates the ease with which mistakes in inference can be made by examining some papers appearing in recent conferences and journals, and by demonstrating with artificial data representing Hofstede's cultural dimensions. It concludes with an appeal for caution when considering the combination of aggregate data with our surveys of individuals.

Chinese abstract生态谬误是统计数据解读中一种常见且很少人了解的错误，人们会误从个人所属集团的汇总中推论出个人数据。本评论概述了避免该错误的重要性，并通过近期会议期刊上的论文和霍夫斯泰德教授文化方面的人工数据说明推论错误的经常出现。本文最后呼吁在综合考虑聚合数据与个人调查时，一定要认真谨慎。

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