Determinants of daily fluctuations in air passenger volumes. The effect of events and holidays on Milan Malpensa airport

• Events (fairs, conferences, sport) and holidays influence daily traffic in airports.
• We quantify the effect of events and holidays on daily fluctuations of passengers.
• The analysis uses an OLS model and 2011 daily data for Milan Malpensa airport.
• Results show which types of events generate a visible traffic increase and its entity.
• Some events add traffic up to more than 20% extra passengers to the normal baseline.

Air traffic flows show large seasonal variability, but arrivals and departures may also be significantly influenced by specific events which generate peaks, which generate peaks rising above baseline traffic. While seasonal variations of air flows are well studied in literature, the daily variations and their causes are seldom analysed and quantified. The paper aims at filling this gap by exploring and quantifying the effect of holidays and events (conferences, trade fairs, sport events) in terms of passenger daily fluctuations.We identified the elements affecting these variations and searched for correlations with daily demand fluctuations using an OLS econometric model applied to Milan Malpensa airport. The model allows one to reproduce the observed daily traffic, identifying the baseline component of traffic (depending on the calendar) and the additional effect ascribable to holidays and occasional events.Results show which types of events generate a visible traffic increase. The effect of some of them can be very significant indeed. The largest international design and fashion shows taking place in Milan generate up to more than 20% extra passenger traffic compared to the normal baseline traffic. In addition, the analysis showed that their effect is not limited to the event days, but impacted on the surrounding days as well. Holidays also influence the patterns of demand, creating additional traffic on certain days and more pronounced peaks, which also differ according to seasons.