An investigation of air accidents in Nigeria using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) framework

• We undertake an analysis of aviation accidents in Nigeria using the Human factors model.
• We find higher accident and fatality rates in Nigeria compared to global average levels for much of the period studied.
• Skill based errors; physical environment and inadequate supervision are the most frequent categories in air accidents.
• There are some significant associations between adjacent categories provided by the model employed.
• Supervisory violations/crew resource management/decision errors form the most potent path for accident occurrences in Nigeria.

Increasing air traffic growth has been achieved along with substantial improvement in safety globally. While air traffic is equally growing in Nigeria, safety levels do not appear to be growing side by side. This was gleaned from the spate of accidents and fatalities recorded in the last couple of decades. The study therefore set out to assess safety performance in Nigeria's air transport industry by comparing accidents and fatality rates with global average levels during the period 1985–2008. A content analysis of the accident reports was done using the Human Factors Analysis Classification System (HFACS) as a conceptual framework; this was augmented with results of industry experts assessment of the Nigerian aviation industry. Their assessments were also discussed in the context of the conceptual framework. Accidents and passenger fatality rates in Nigeria were higher than global average figures for most of the years included in the analysis period. Findings on aircraft ages show that these are also higher than world average levels. The aviation industry experts' assessment presented various challenges which include inadequate airport facilities, absence of timely meteorological information and dearth of skilled personnel in Nigeria's aviation industry. The content analysis of the accident reports using the HFACS shows that skill based errors; physical environment and inadequate supervision are the most frequently occurring categories influencing accident occurrences. The Chi-square and Fishers's test used to analyze significant relationships in the HFACS categories obtained in the accident reports showed five pairs of significant associations between adjacent categories. Based on these associations, Supervisory Violations:-Crew Resource Management:- Decision Errors path is deemed the most potent for accident occurrences. Findings from the research point to the need to address personnel skill, physical environment issues (mostly weather related) and supervisory competence.