Parameterized framework for the analysis of probabilities of aircraft delay at an airport

The study analyses ground delays and air holding at Entebbe International Airport over five years. Daily probabilities for aircraft departure and arrival delays at are generated for each. The mean probabilities of delay for ground delays and air holding at 50% delay threshold levels are 0.94 and 0.82 that fall to 0.49 and 0.36 when 60% delay threshold levels are used. Simulations are performance for delay threshold levels to monitor for the trends of the daily probabilities for the study period. The general conclusion is that a parameter-based framework is best suited to determine the probability of aircraft delay at an airport.

► The study analyses ground delays and air holding at an International Airport over five years based on parameters.
► Daily probabilities for aircraft departure and arrival delays at an airport were generated for each.
► The mean probabilities of delay for ground delays and air holding at the airport were 0.49 and 0.36.
► Simulations performed established that 60% threshold level was best suited for trend analysis.
► A parameter-based framework is best suited to determine the probability of aircraft delay at an airport.