A survival model for flight delay propagation

This paper examines flight delay propagation involving a Taiwanese domestic airline. The Cox proportional hazards model is used to develop departure and arrival delay models that show how flight delay propagation can be formulated through repeated chain effects in aircraft rotations. The hazard ratios obtained provide measures of the chances of recovering from flight delays under a variety of situations and the effects that individual contributing factors of flight delays have on airline schedule reliability.

► Departure delays and arrival delays are closely related.
► Flight delays are stochastic in nature.
► Buffer time is commonly used, but may not greatly improve delays.
► Hazard ratios can be used to examine the chances of recovering from flight delays.
► The findings provide airlines the direction of how to maintain a robust schedule.