کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1033320 943296 2009 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A statistical framework for strategic decision making with AHP: Probability assessment and Bayesian revision
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری استراتژی و مدیریت استراتژیک
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A statistical framework for strategic decision making with AHP: Probability assessment and Bayesian revision
چکیده انگلیسی
A probability assessment framework is outlined for an organizational decision involving a conditioning event (CE). The decision may, for example, involve a new-product launch (strategic decision) dependent on the outcome of market research (CE). The framework illustrates how Bayesian revision could be employed as related “news” arrives intermittently to revise current probabilities prior to decision implementation. A unique contribution of this paper is its utilization of the analytic hierarchy process to ascertain a set of consistent and coherent probabilities for the event/sample spaces at all stages of the decision process.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Omega - Volume 37, Issue 2, April 2009, Pages 463-470
نویسندگان
,