Does the natural selection mechanism still work in severe recessions?

This paper investigates whether the natural selection mechanism (NSM) of economic Darwinism works in severe recessions. Based on micro data, we constructed a comprehensive firm-level panel dataset for Japan from 1994 to 1998 to analyze a firm's entry, survival, and exit and its relationship with TFP. Empirical results show that efficient firms in terms of TFP exited while inefficient ones survived in the banking-crisis period of 1996-1997. Further, this phenomenon is observed mainly for new entrants and contributes substantially to a fall in macro TFP after 1996. These facts strongly suggest a malfunctioning of NSM in severe recessions.