Aspiration uncertainty: its impact on decision performance and process

We explore how a discrete change in the level of “aspiration uncertainty” affects the quality of a decision and the willingness to search for an improved decision. We find knowing what is attainable improves decision performance, especially when luck places the decision-maker near the optimal choice early in the search process. However, knowing what is attainable hampers performance when the complexity of the problem makes an improved choice difficult to find, for knowing what is attainable teases the decision-maker into over-utilizing decision resources. Differences in the propensity to search are independent of the level of aspiration uncertainty.