کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
10442597 | 914890 | 2005 | 23 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The growth dynamics of the Internet and the long wave theory
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
The phenomenal growth of Internet users is slowing down and we expect to approach a world limit in the next decade of about 14% of the world population. On the basis of a historical analysis this basic innovation is placed in the context of the Kondratieff cycles (K-waves) and the associated Generational-Learning model. A quantitative analysis using logistic growth curves allows us to evaluate its growth dynamics and to assert that the Internet is coming to the end of the 4th K-wave downswing or innovation structural phase and will then embark on the 5th K-wave upswing or consolidation structural phase. The debate about the future of the K-wave pattern is considered, specifically the factors bearing on the continuation or alteration of the pattern and the trajectory.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change - Volume 72, Issue 8, October 2005, Pages 913-935
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change - Volume 72, Issue 8, October 2005, Pages 913-935
نویسندگان
Tessaleno C. Devezas, Harold A. Linstone, Humberto J.S. Santos,