Participatory prognostics in Germany-developing citizen scenarios for the relationship between biomedicine and the economy in 2014

The rapid development of biomedicine demands a trustworthy, proactive regulatory regime that is able to manage progress with genuine regard for ethical, social and legal concerns. With its recent past of eugenics and euthanasia, Germany is particularly concerned with setting up a fair and transparent approach, able to respond quickly to scientific developments as well as societal concerns. This article reports on the development, implementation and evaluation of a citizen scenario workshop as a tool of participatory prognostics, integrating elements from participatory technology assessment and forecasting. In 7 days of highly structured work and expert support, 24 German participants developed four scenarios on “The Relationship of Biomedicine and the Economy in the Year 2014.” Results and evaluation both show that the process (1) leads to scenarios that provide a useful perspective beyond expert opinion; (2) enriches the public and political discourse; and (3) offers a social learning opportunity appreciated by nonprofessionals and experts alike. We are confident in recommending this technique as a useful addition to existing foresight and horizon scanning activities.