Analyzing grid extension and stand-alone photovoltaic systems for the cost-effective electrification of Kenya

• We estimate electricity demand for households near electric infrastructure.
• We predict the household electricity demand for all unelectrified households.
• We find the spatially explicit least cost electrification option for households.
• Decentralized PV is cheaper for areas with low demand and high connection costs.
• The results highlight the importance for regionally specific electricity planning.

The declaration of 2014–2024 as the Decade of Sustainable Energy for All has catalyzed actions towards achieving universal electricity access. The high costs of building electric infrastructure are a major impediment to improved access, making stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) systems an attractive solution in remote areas. Here, we analyze the cost-effective electrification solution for Kenya comparing grid extension with stand-alone PV systems. We use micro-data from a national household survey to estimate electricity demand for households that are within reach of electricity infrastructure and to predict latent demand in unconnected households. These regional demands are used in a spatially explicit supply model to seek for a least cost electrification solution. Our results suggest that decentralized PV systems can make an important contribution in areas, with low demand and high connection costs. We find that up to 17% of the population can be reached cost-effectively by off-grid PV systems till 2020.