Reducing GHG emissions in the United States' transportation sector

Reducing GHG emissions in the U.S. transportation sector requires both the use of highly efficient propulsion systems and low carbon fuels. This study compares reduction potentials that might be achieved in 2060 for several advanced options including biofuels, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), assuming that technical and cost reduction targets are met and necessary fueling infrastructures are built. The study quantifies the extent of the reductions that can be achieved through increasing engine efficiency and transitioning to low-carbon fuels separately. Decarbonizing the fuels is essential for achieving large reductions in GHG emissions, and the study quantifies the reductions that can be achieved over a range of fuel carbon intensities. Although renewables will play a vital role, some combination of coal gasification with carbon capture and sequestration, and/or nuclear energy will likely be needed to enable very large reductions in carbon intensities for hydrogen and electricity. Biomass supply constraints do not allow major carbon emission reductions from biofuels alone; the value of biomass is that it can be combined with other solutions to help achieve significant results. Compared with gasoline, natural gas provides 20% reduction in GHG emissions in internal combustion engines and up to 50% reduction when used as a feedstock for producing hydrogen or electricity, making it a good transition fuel for electric propulsion drive trains. The material in this paper can be useful information to many other countries, including developing countries because of a common factor: the difficulty of finding sustainable, low-carbon, cost-competitive substitutes for petroleum fuels.

Research Highlights
► Modeling GHG emissions assuming success of advanced vehicle and low carbon fuels.
► Advanced vehicle fuel efficiency barely compensates for GHG increases in miles driven.
► Reducing fuel CIs are essential for achieving significant GHG reductions.
► With FVEC/PHEV success, using biofuels to displace diesel in HDVs has advantages.
► A 50% (25%) drop from 2010 GHG levels for LDVs (LDV; HDV) by 2060 may be possible.