Grid-connected photovoltaic in Brazil: Policies and potential impacts for 2030

This paper presents a prospective analysis of grid connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the Brazilian household sector. With the reduction of solar PV module prices around the world and the high tariffs for residential consumers in Brazil some regions of the country with large solar radiation resource are reaching the grid electricity-price parity. In this context the objective of this paper is to evaluate scenarios of technology diffusion up to 2030 considering policy mechanisms to foster the development of grid connected PV generation. The three mechanisms assessed are the net metering compensation scheme as proposed by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL), feed-in tariffs and direct subsidies to PV installations. We evaluate the market penetration potential in each case using a logit-function approach. The investigation results show that PV distributed technology has good opportunities for Brazil to diversify its energy matrix with potential economic and environmental benefits. However it is clear that the absence of long-term energy policy objectives for solar PV and the lack of additional support mechanisms could reflect in an inefficient and incipient adoption of this technology and the loss of its potential benefits.

Highlights
► Brazil has adopted the regulation of distributed electricity generation
► We evaluate scenarios of photovoltaic (PV) technology diffusion up to the year 2030
► We estimate impacts of public policy mechanisms to foster the development of PV
► PV technology is good opportunity for Brazil to diversify its energy matrix