Least cost principles and electricity planning for Karnataka

The state of Karnataka in India faces a shortfall in its electricity-generating capacity, which is higher during peak demand periods. To remedy this, the government has planned a large expansion of baseload capacity, mainly in the form of large coal based thermal power plants. In the study described here, we calculate the per-kilowatt hour costs of various supply side options at different plant load factors, and find that the current plans for supply expansion via large base-load generation plants is at odds with the objective of meeting demand shortfall at lowest cost. We estimate a comparable kilowatt hour cost of energy efficiency measures, and estimate their potential via a sector-wise analysis. A lowest cost planning exercise suggests that the increase in demand over the next decade can be met by implementing energy efficiency measures, expanding renewable sources of power to their capacity, and implementing the thermal power plants already contracted. Therefore it is not necessary to commission any new large coal based thermal plants during the next decade or more.