Success or failure: Evaluating the implementation of China's National General Land Use Plan (1997–2010)

• China's National General Plan has conformed and performed poorly, and has not been successful.
• Conformance- and performance-based criteria are complements, rather than substitutes for each other.
• Redundant governance hindered the success of the plan implementation.
• Attention to uncertainty and implementation structure facilitates plan implementation analysis.
• It is beneficial to distinguish between ‘being implemented’ and ‘being implemented successfully’.

In order to assess the implementation of China's National General Land Use Plan (1997–2010), this study combined conformance-based and performance-based criteria. The conformance analysis was carried out by contrasting outcomes with planning goals. Regarding the performance-based criteria, this study focuses on the role of decision-making elements in plan implementation, such as subsequent plans relevance to the plan being evaluated, policies developed to implement the plan being assessed, and, local government's strategic response to the implementation of subsequent plans. This study highlights the critical role of uncertainty, as well as the structure related to the plan implementation. The results show that the National General Land Use Plan (1997–2010) conformed and performed poorly, and failed to achieve its goals. This study also indicates that the failure of the plan implementation was a result of uncertainty, difficulty in coordination, policy bugs and redundant governance, and weak plan implementation monitoring.