کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
10477783 930623 2005 21 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Current account adjustment in industrial countries
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Current account adjustment in industrial countries
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper examines the dynamics of current account adjustment among industrial countries. The purpose is to evaluate whether there is a threshold level of a current account deficit at which it becomes unsustainable and whether it is possible to characterize episodes of adjustment. We identify 25 episodes in which there was a sustained improvement in the current account following a large deficit between 1980 and 1997. We find that a typical current account reversal begins when the current account deficit is about 5% of GDP. However, we also find considerable cross-country variation in the reversal threshold, consistent with a stock-adjustment model of current account sustainability. Reversals are associated with slowing income growth and a 10-20% real exchange rate depreciation. Real export growth, declining investment, and an eventual leveling off in the budget deficit-GDP ratio are also likely to be part of the adjustment. These results imply that current account reversals in industrialized countries are related to the business cycle.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance - Volume 24, Issue 8, December 2005, Pages 1278-1298
نویسندگان
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