کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
10477783 | 930623 | 2005 | 21 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Current account adjustment in industrial countries
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
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چکیده انگلیسی
This paper examines the dynamics of current account adjustment among industrial countries. The purpose is to evaluate whether there is a threshold level of a current account deficit at which it becomes unsustainable and whether it is possible to characterize episodes of adjustment. We identify 25 episodes in which there was a sustained improvement in the current account following a large deficit between 1980 and 1997. We find that a typical current account reversal begins when the current account deficit is about 5% of GDP. However, we also find considerable cross-country variation in the reversal threshold, consistent with a stock-adjustment model of current account sustainability. Reversals are associated with slowing income growth and a 10-20% real exchange rate depreciation. Real export growth, declining investment, and an eventual leveling off in the budget deficit-GDP ratio are also likely to be part of the adjustment. These results imply that current account reversals in industrialized countries are related to the business cycle.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance - Volume 24, Issue 8, December 2005, Pages 1278-1298
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance - Volume 24, Issue 8, December 2005, Pages 1278-1298
نویسندگان
Caroline Freund,