کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
10478934 931449 2014 16 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it
چکیده انگلیسی
We explore sustainable paths out of a debt trap with a highly stylized two-sector differential equations model for the stocks of money in Government and Society. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The solutions provide detailed “escape conditions” from the debt trap. A primary surplus is required. Then a government can escape its debt trap either through sustained annual monetary outflows from society to the government (taxation) but with a low initial growth rate, or through annual monetary inflows into both sectors (stimulus) with higher initial growth rate. We illustrate the use of our model with simulations which show how five indebted countries can escape their debt trap in 30 (or 70) years.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Policy Modeling - Volume 36, Issue 2, March–April 2014, Pages 241-256
نویسندگان
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