کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
10479083 931499 2016 25 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Macroeconomic effects of a decline in housing prices in Sweden
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
اثرات اقتصاد کلان کاهش قیمت مسکن در سوئد
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
Real housing prices in Sweden have roughly doubled the last 15 years. The rise in housing prices has coincided with a rise in household debt, sparking debate about both the presence of financial imbalances in the Swedish economy and the macroeconomic effects that a correction of these imbalances would have. In this paper, we conduct a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of a considerable decline in housing prices using a Bayesian VAR model. Results show that a 20% drop in housing prices would lead to a recession-like impact on household consumption and unemployment. The impact would be even greater if falling housing prices coincided with a global economic downturn. This information should be useful to policymakers. If a fall in housing prices were to materialize, more expansionary stabilization policies would be motivated in order to dampen the effects on the real economy.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Policy Modeling - Volume 38, Issue 2, March–April 2016, Pages 242-255
نویسندگان
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