Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research

• The first study to measure the expected closeness by using data obtained from prediction markets.
• Empirical clarification of the relation between the expected closeness and the levels of turnout in direct democratic votes.
• Results show that the expected closeness of the result exerts a positive effect on participation levels.

This article analyzes the effect of the expected closeness on turnout for 56 direct-democratic votes held in Switzerland between 2012 and 2015. It is the first study to measure the expected closeness by using data obtained from prediction markets. It clarifies empirically the relation between the expected closeness and the levels of turnout in direct democratic votes showing that the expected closeness of the result exerts a positive effect on participation levels.