Mission success regulations, their effect on ELV launch success and the applicability to regulating commercial human spaceflight

As the human spaceflight industry grows the agencies charged with regulating that industry meet significant challenges. An improvement in launch success would improve the safety for the crew and passengers of a commercial human spaceflight. With respect to ELV launches, NASA's regulations over civil launches are mission success oriented while commercial launches regulated by the FAA-AST, the agency that will also be charged with human spaceflight, takes a more public safety oriented stance. A comparison of the launch success between civil and commercial launches is used to inform the decision on whether or not mission success would be an appropriate regulatory stance for the FAA-AST. The results show that there is no significant difference in launch success between civil and commercial ELV launches. Because of this and because the industry is wary of over regulation, there is indication that a mission success oriented stance might not be appropriate for regulating commercial human spaceflight.