Can management effort be predicted for marine protected areas? New considerations for network design

• A prediction indicator method to assess management effort of Marine Protected Areas is proposed.
• Relationships between management variables can be used to rank and calculate the predicted management effort of proposed Marine Protected Areas.
• Marine Protected Area with more human activities (management complexity) does not necessarily equal greater management effort.

This study examined the level of management complexity (simultaneously occurring licensed human activities) within the currently designated Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in Scottish waters and through modelling and statistical analysis determined which variables play an important role in defining the level of management effort required for each MPA. This study utilised surveyed distribution data for Priority Marine Features and modelled distribution data showing potential “Most Suitable” Priority Marine Feature habitat through the species distribution model, Maxent. Prediction indicators were developed through Spearman׳s Rank coefficients and a linear regression model. Results showed that, (1) there was a significant negative correlation between the management complexity score within 5 km of a MPA and the number of casework events (defined as any work or statutory consultation associated with an MPA, such as planning applications, discharges or new fisheries); and (2) a significant positive correlation between the number of casework events and location, number of features, and the type of features and most suitable scores. Calculations showed that Lochs Duich, Long and Alsh, Loch Sunart, Loch Sween and Loch Creran may potentially require most effort to manage once they are designated as MPAs. This study showed that it is possible to evaluate options within an MPA network to achieve cost effective options for the biodiversity and socio-economic objectives of MPA networks and that some MPAs are likely to be more efficient than others in terms of management time.