Long-term environmental change and geographical patterns of violence in Darfur, 2003–2005

• Investigates the role of long-term environmental change for violence in the civil war in Darfur.
• Argues that spatio-temporal environmental variation can lead to migration that affects conflict risks.
• Uses information from satellite imagery and a mixed methods approach to investigate the argument.
• Finds robust correlation between environmental change and geographical patterns of violence.

This paper investigates spatial associations between environmental change and violence in Darfur. Long-term variations in the geographical distribution of water and vegetative resources can foster migration from areas with decreasing levels of resource availability to areas with increasing levels. Rising ethnic diversity and resource competition can, in turn, escalate the risk of violence in areas of high in-migration. This paper employs a multimethod approach to investigate this hypothesis. Qualitative evidence is used to demonstrate the plausibility of the argument for the case of Darfur. The quantitative analysis is based on information retrieved from satellite imagery on long-term vegetation change and the spatial distribution of attacks on villages in the early phase of the civil war (2003–2005). The findings indicate that violence has been more likely and intense in areas that experienced increasing availability of water and vegetative resources during the 20 years prior to the civil war.