The Lega Nord goes south: The electoral advance in Emilia-Romagna: A new territorial model?

The article focuses on the feature of the Lega Nord's (LN) electoral advance into new Italian regions, by stressing the similarities and differences with its historical bases of support. In order to verify whether the expansion has followed a common pattern in historical and well-defined territories of the leghista settlement, results of flow-of-votes analysis in eight different sub-areas of two Northern regions (Emilia-Romagna and Veneto), are reported. Data makes empirically credible the hitherto suggestion of a LN breakthrough among new sectors of the electorate. Estimations of vote shifts show both signals of electoral continuity, and change. While in Veneto no radical change in LN's voters profile occurred, indications from flow-of-votes in Emilia-Romagna has detected a statistically significant (even if minor) flow from the center-left parties.

► We examine changes in the Lega Nord electoral settlement in two regions.
► We analyze estimations of flows-of-vote in eight ad hoc selected sub regional areas.
► The more the resilience of the territorial political subcultures the less the LN's electoral advance.
► Political subcultures impact differently the party's opportunities for expansion.