On the sustainability of cobalt utilization in China

• Material flow analysis for cobalt cycle in China is determined from 2005 to 2013.
• We forecast the demand of cobalt in China.
• Cumulative demand of cobalt is obtained under different recycling scenarios.
• We summarize carrying capacity of cobalt resource and vision of cobalt industry.

Cobalt, one of the more scarce energy metals, is widely utilized in many crucial industries. China is a major consumer and supplier of resources such that domestic cobalt are being rapidly depleted, which results in the boost of consumer electronics (CE) and electric vehicles (EV) industries vulnerable to the sustainability of cobalt reserve base. Here we summarize that China's cobalt demand will increase significantly due to the continuing growth of CE and the briskly emerging market of EV, resulting in a short carrying duration of cobalt, even with full recycling of cobalt products. With these applications increasing at an annual rate of 5%, the carrying duration of cobalt resource until 2030 will oblige the cobalt products recycling rate of not less than 90%. To sustain cobalt utilization in China, one approach for cobalt recycling would be to improve the collection system and recycling technology towards closed-loop supply chain, and other future endeavours should include commercializing the low-content cobalt battery and optimizing cobalt industrial structure.

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